Fitch: erneutes downgrading für Spanien
Spain has been downgraded to two notches above "junk" by Fitch. The country was cut to "BBB" from "A".
Spain moves closer to the credit junk pile, as Fitch slashes the country's rating by three notches and warns the likely cost of restructuring and recapitalising the Spanish banking sector could reach €100bn.
Telegraph - Thursday 07 June 2012 - 17.48
18.25 The three-notch cut is a pretty dramatic move by Fitch.
By comparison, Standard & Poor's currently rates Spain at BBB+ (three notches above junk - following a cut in April), while Moody's rates Spain at A3, which is four notches above junk.
When a sovereign is rated "junk" by all three rating agencies, investors not allowed to hold junk bonds are forced to sell them, pushing up the cost of borrowing. When Portugal was downgraded to "junk" by S&P in January, its theoretical borrowing costs (Portugal received a bail-out) shot up by 2pc in the space of 24 hours.
Spain has a long way to go, but the move is unlikely to help Madrid, which has seen its borrowing costs rise dramatically over the past month.
17.59 More from Fitch:
"The dramatic erosion of Spain's sovereign credit profile and ratings over the last year in part reflects policy missteps at the European level that in Fitch's opinion have aggravated the economic and financial challenges facing Spain as it seeks to rebalance and restructure the economy. The intensification of the eurozone crisis in the latter half of last year pushed the region and Spain back into recession, exacerbating concerns over sovereign and bank solvency. The absence of a credible vision of a reformed EMU and financial 'firewall' has rendered Spain and other so-called peripheral nations vulnerable to capital flight and undercut their access to affordable fiscal funding. Spain has been especially vulnerable to a worsening of the eurozone crisis because of the high level of net foreign indebtedness (around 90% of GDP) and fragile confidence in its capacity to implement fiscal consolidation and bank restructuring in a timely fashion."
17.51 The rating agency outlined five factors for the downgrade:
1.) The monumental task Spain faces in recapitalising its banks. Fitch said:
"The likely fiscal cost of restructuring and recapitalising the Spanish banking sector is now estimated by Fitch to be around EUR60bn (6% of GDP) and as high as EUR100bn (9% of GDP) in a more severe stress scenario compared to Fitch's previous baseline estimate of around EUR30bn (3% of GDP)."
2.) "Gross general government debt (GGGD) is projected by Fitch to peak at 95% of GDP in 2015 assuming a EUR60bn bank recapitalisation, compared to Fitch's forecast at the beginning of the year of 82% by the end of 2013."
3.) Recession. Spain is now expected to remain in recession until the end of 2013.
4.) Spain's high level of foreign indebtedness.
5.) Spain’s "much reduced financing flexibility of the Spanish government is constraining its ability to intervene decisively in the restructuring of the banking sector and has increased the likelihood of external financial support."
Tja Leute, wie sagt man dazu?
España está con la boca a la pared (Spanien pfeift auf dem letzten Loch)