Krisenbeobachtung » Spanien und die Krisenfolgen

Trotz Sparkurses: Spanien droht der Schuldenkollaps

Die spanische Regierung will weitere zehn Milliarden Euro einsparen. Indes lässt sich das Defizit kaum unter Kontrolle bringen.

("Die Presse", Print-Ausgabe, 11.04.2012)


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Spanien rückt in den Mittelpunkt der Krise

Regierung in Madrid kann mit neuen Spar-Plänen Anleger nicht beruhigen.

Wiener Zeitung


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Spain: The Ultimate Doomsday Presentation

Since we have grown tired of variations on the theme of "The Pain in ...." (having been guilty of encouraging it ourselves), we will spare readers this triteness, and instead summarize the attached must read slidedeck from Carmel Asset Management as the ultimate Spanish doomsday presentation. Naive and/or idealistic Spanish readers are advised to resume sticking their heads in the sand, and to stay as far away as possible from the attached 54 pages, which prove without any doubt why not only was Greece the appetizer (have your UK law:non-UK Law divergence trade on yet?) but why things in Europe are about to get far, far worse, as the Hurricane shifts to its next preferred location, somewhere above and just south of the Pyrenees.

In summary, here are Carmel's five reasons why Spain's problems are worse than the market anticipates:

1. Spain’s national debt is 50% greater than the headline numbers
Spain’s debt-to-GDP balloons from 60% to 90% of GDP with regional and other debts

2. Spain’s housing prices will fall by an additional 35%
Spain built one house for every additional person added to the population during the past two decades; the fall will decrease GDP by ~2% each of the next two years

3. Spain has “zombie” banks with massive loans to developers and to homeowners
Banks have not begun to realize losses and are vastly undercapitalized

4. Spain’s economy has not stabilized and will continue to deteriorate
Spain has the highest unemployment in the developed world, one of the highest overall debt loads, and the most uncompetitive labor market in Europe

5. The EU will not have the firepower or political will to bail out Spain
Rescue fund headline numbers are misleading and count capital that is not yet committed

And here are the problems that will manifest themselves over the next 12 months:

Spain’s true debt burden will pass the 90% “tipping point” identified by Rogoff and Reinhart Housing prices will fall further and faster than anticipated (consensus is 15%; CAM estimate is 35%)
Banks underestimate the residential real estate loan defaults (consensus estimate is 2.8% vs. CAM estimate of 11%)
Expected housing price depreciation and loan defaults will deepen Spain’s recession (additional 2% contraction in 2012 and 2013)
Spain will need to refinance €186.1 Billion in 2012 alone

End result: surging CDS and/or plunging bond prices, if faith in the sovereign CDS market continues to be at rock bottom lows courtesy of ISDA nearly blowing its own head off.

Eine besonders gelungene Aufarbeitung der Lage und Aussichten von zerohedge.
Bemerkenswert und unbedingt zu empfehlen die grafisch aufbereitete Präsentation im Link von CARMEL Asset Management

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/spain-ulti...ay-presentation



Ebenfalls bei zerohedge nachzulesen

"The Rain In Spain"
[...]
“Mere flimflam stories and nothing but shams and lies.” - Miguel Cervantes

To make matters worse they government of Spain is now directing the Spanish banks to raise an additional $65 billion in 2012 which is going to come from where I wonder. Perhaps the Spanish Inquisition Fund for the Unemployed. The unemployment numbers for Spain are now the highest in Europe for both the general population and those under 35 which now stands at almost one-half of the country’s younger people. I fear that Prime Minister Rajoy’s eminence may be of short duration.

“Spain does not need a financial bailout at this moment." - Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos, April 10, 2012

Wait just a moment; the next one will arrive!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/rain-spain


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Spanien plant neues Milliarden-Sparprogramm

Das von Schulden geplagte Spanien steht trotz seiner strikten Sparpolitik im Visier der Finanzmärkte. Um das Finanzdesaster in den Griff zu bekommen, plant Madrid jetzt ein zusätzliches Stabilitätsprogramm - mit neuen Einsparungen bei der Bildung und im Gesundheitswesen. Die angespannte spanische Lage belastet auch den übrigen europäischen Finanzmarkt.

http://wirtschaft.t-online.de/spanien-pl..._55459848/index


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Regierung will 10 Milliarden Euro einsparen
Spanien: Kürzungen bei Gesundheit und Bildung

Durch Ausgabenkürzungen bei Gesundheit und Bildung will die spanische Regierung zehn Milliarden Euro einsparen. "Wir müssen unnötige Kosten senken und schlecht laufende Bereiche rationalisieren - andernfalls ist die Zukunftsfähigkeit des Systems gefährdet", erklärte der Wirtschaftsminister.

EurActiv


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Spanisches Dorf verpachtet Land an Kiffer

Schulden von 1,3 Millionen Euro müssen abgebaut werden, die bezahlte Pacht liegt zehnfach über den üblichen Preisen.

WirtschaftsBlatt


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Europäische Finanzkrise
Spanien kann das Misstrauen der Anleger nicht überwinden

Spanien entwickelt sich in der europäischen Finanzkrise zum Sorgenkind. Die Regierung des verschuldeten Landes kündigt immer neue Sparvorhaben an, aber die Nervosität bleibt. Die Wirtschaft steht vor einer drastischen Rezession, die Arbeitslosenquote liegt bei fast 23 Prozent.

Focus